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There is a growing sense by a mounting cacophony of doomsday commentators that a catastrophic economic meltdown is around the corner.  This is not supported by my global economic outlook for 2017.  Let’s begin with the basics.  My previous research (see The Dynamics of Economic Recessions in the Age of Aquarius) has indicated that the two key critical ingredients for determining the economic situation in the world is the 5 year quasi micro-age decans and 15 month nano-ages.  However, I now lean more towards the 5 month nano-age decans rather than the whole 15 month nano-age.  In addition, in 2016 I also utilized 5 week pica-ages for fine tuning, and this also worked out well.  (For those new to macro-astrology, see Age of Aquarius for Dummies).

Only once every five years the quasi micro-age decan change, and this is the case in 2017.  In June 2017 the Cancer quasi micro-age decan (Jul 2012 – Jun 2017) comes to an end and this marks the end of the 5 year post Global Recession period.  Cancer is moderately good for the economy (because it is opposite in nature to problematic Capricorn) but due to Cancer lacking Capricorn’s archetypes – Cancer has no backbone.  Therefore, this Cancer quasi micro-age decan was a period of weak recovery.  Things have ever so slowly improved in Western economies though the Dow Jones appears to have gone ballistic – again.

The new 5 year period to arrive in mid-2017 is the Aquarius quasi micro-age decan (Jun 2017 – Jun 2022) peaking around December 2019.  Unfortunately Aquarius is opposite Leo – one of the best signs for positive economic conditions and especially stock markets.  This does not bode well for the Aquarius period as it means that there is no strength in the coming economic conditions.  The inconsistency associated with Aquarius will mimic the changeable nature of Cancer so the market volatility of the 5 years Cancer period will continue in the coming 5 years Aquarius period.  No one should expect economic strength or stability in the coming 5 years.

Furthermore, the greatest bull market of all time occurred in the Leo micro-age (1985-2000) and the coming Aquarius period has the opposite intent – it wants to undermine the positive (Leo) economic conditions for western economies.  This not only will occur, it most likely will be concluded with an economic recession in the period March 2021 to June 2022 – though this coming recession should be much milder than the last Global Recession.

The only relevance in 2017 of Aquarius is that at any time under Aquarius, an economic shock can appear, but often these economic shocks can be separated by some frenzied activity.  Also, from mid-2017, the seed for the economic recession (of March 2021 to June 2022) may come into focus.  Where is the fragile economic underbelly?  Most likely something associated with Aquarius.  This suggests the IT industry, internet companies, digital disruption or insufficient electricity supplies will bear the brunt of the coming economic problems, but only the first glimmer should be experienced in 2017.  A clearer picture will emerge around the end of 2019 when Aquarius strengthens.

Of course, all this hyper-Aquarius influence will mean more populace anti-globalization sentiment as Aquarius, on a bad day, is associated with pro-nationalistic anti-globalization as recently experienced in Brexit and Trump’s ascendancy.  Perversely, Aquarius is also the champion of globalization which is a major by-product of the arrival of the Age in Aquarius in the 15th century when the whole world commenced to be discovered for the first time.  If international trade is curtailed in any way, this will have some dire economic consequences not too much further down the garden path.

Specific countries with strong association to Aquarius will increasingly come under the spotlight for better or worse though usually the focus is to their advantage or strength.  These countries include:  Germany, Russia and, Turkey plus all the Arabic countries.  Except for Germany, all these countries and region are also associated with Cancer, and the world remains firmly in the Cancer micro-age overflow (2014-2029).  Specific countries with strong association to Pisces will experience problems and difficult issues due to the derived 12th house effect of Aquarius promoting Pisces’ 12th house.  This affects a 10 year period (December 2014 until November 2024) and is already in play.  Countries with strong Pisces’ association include: North Africa, Czech Republic, Europe, Netherlands, most Polynesian countries, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine & the USA.

In summary, this Aquarius period is not going to bring economic stability or any sustained growth or strength, and any vulnerability due to a weakening IT sector, digital disruption, insufficient electricity or anti-globalization is bound to become a negative economic issue as this 5 year Aquarius period plays out.

Taurus nano-age & overflow (Dec 14 – Mar 16 – Jun 17)

Whenever a cusp appears, such as the above quasi micro-age cusp, other cusps also appear for many smaller periods.  Drilling down from quasi micro-age decans we arrive at the 15 month nano-ages.  June 2017 sees the conclusion of the Taurus nano-age and overflow.  Taurus is the most stable of all the signs, and no economic recession (since 1791 at least) has commenced in a Taurus nano-age.

Despite this overall economic stability, negative issues related to money and currency are promoted, so we have recently seen international currency manipulation with many countries desperately trying to devalue their currency so their products are cheaper to buy on the international market. Trump is accusing China of doing the same to the perceived detriment of American producers.

Other Taurus related financial difficulties include India removing overnight (late 2016) some high denomination notes to counter the anti-tax black cash market that dominates India.  Many other countries such as Venezuela, Egypt, Rhodesia, China, Mexico (due to Trump), UK (following Brexit), Papua New Guinea and Switzerland are also experiencing financial problems related to liquidity, foreign exchange, the black economy and so on.  China’s liquidity problems should not be underestimated.

For example, even the Australian government has recently stated it is investigating removing its largest denomination – the $100 note from circulation – as they believe many billions of dollars in illegal criminal profit is stashed under many mattresses. The USA has also examined the possibility.  Examination of the ‘illegal’ cash economy of Australia in 2010-2011 found that drugs and criminal activity accounted for very little compared to people, businesses or corporations hiding their legitimate income (to avoid taxes).[1]  The usual suspects are condemned so the real suspects can continue relatively unscathed.

Governments can never be trusted to tell the truth, so when countries such as India, Australia, the European Union, Venezuela, Rhodesia as examples want to summarily withdraw high denomination notes from the market, the pretext that this is to undermine the black economy cannot be trusted or fully trusted.  What is really happening here?  Some commentators believe it is the first step towards a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) whereby instead of banks paying customers interest on their bank accounts, the banks charge customers for holding their cash.  This is already occurring in some countries.  To facilitate NIRP, it is necessary to have more money held in banks and less stuffed under mattresses.

Under the Taurus nano-age and overflow negative interest rates has been implemented across Europe and in Japan. The challenge for most policymakers is getting this (Aquarius) unconventional monetary policy to help economies escape from a (Taurus) liquidity trap.  The only country that seems to have succeeded with this policy is Sweden.  Sweden is in the middle of the pack when it comes to G10 countries with negative rates. At -0.5%, the benchmark repo rate is higher than benchmark rates in Switzerland and Denmark, but lower than rates in Japan and the Eurozone.[2]

With the current Taurus nano-age and overflow coming to a close in mid-1017, monetary policy will shift away from exchange rates and NIRP – but it will reappear with super sharp teeth and claws in the Taurus micro-age and overflow (2029-2044-2059), especially in the central Taurus quasi micro-age decan.  If banks want to charge people for holding their money, this suggests that there is nowhere for the banks to use this money and make profitable income.  This is due to the coming multi-century economic slowdown that will seriously pick up speed in 2029. (see All Good Things Must Come to an End)

The end of Taurus also indicates an end for some short term economic stability as Taurus is opposite in nature to Scorpio – one of the signs that most savages the economy and markets.  The end of Taurus means the world is moving into more turbulent waters in mid-2017.

Aries nano-age & overflow (Mar 16 – Jun 17 – Sep 18)

All ages and sub-period overlap the previous and following periods.  The Taurus nano-age decan overflow overlaps the Aries nano-age.  Aries is as turbulent as Taurus is stable, but the turbulence from Aries is not usually directed to the economy but to war.  With the peak of Aries occurring in mid-2017, we must expect an international conflict of the level of the Gulf war and Iraq invasion (see What is in Store for Trump & the USA in 2017?).  This conflict does not have to wait until June 2017 – Aries does pick up speed in April 2017.  The arrival of such a war or significant conflict, above and beyond the ‘norm’ since the invasion of Iraq in the last Aries nano-age, will most likely spook the markets but usually Aries is a strong sign for the economy, so we should not expect the markets to be dragged down by this conflict other than in the very short term.

Aries archetypes should flourish – does this mean further improvement in iron and steel prices?  The following graph shows the clear jump in iron ore prices since the arrival of the Aries nano-age in March 2016:

iron-graph

Pisces nano-age and overflow (Jun 17 – Sep18 – Dec 19)

The departure of one nano-age decan and overflow must mean the arrival of another as at every level associated with the astrological ages, there must always be a pair of periods of the same type in play at any one time.  With the departure of the Taurus nano-age and overflow in June 2017, we see the arrival of the Pisces nano-age decan and overflow.  This does not require much evaluation at this point as the first quarter of any period is its weakest quarter, and only the first quarter of the Pisces period will be experienced in the second half of 2017.

Pisces does rule the oil industry, and the arrival of this Pisces nano-age in June 2017 suggests that we should see the beginning of the increase in the price of oil from its incredible lows during the Cancer quasi micro-age decan.  This is supported to a degree with the arrival of the Aquarius quasi micro-age decan (Jun 2017 – Jun 2022)  because Aquarius has traditionally been linked to Arabia – the source of much of the world’s oil supply.

crude-oil-price-history-chart-2016-12-16-macrotrendsCrude Oil prices[3]

Scorpio nano-age decan and overflow (Jun 17 – Nov 17 – Apr 18)

What is more relevant than the above Pisces period is the first 5 month Scorpio nano-age decan within this Pisces period.This Scorpio period will bring the first economic shock associated within the larger 5 year Aquarius period.  By November 2017 the markets are going to be rattled and we will see a downturn in sentiment in the period Aug 2017-Jan 2018 with the strongest focus in November 2017.  This is not going to collapse the house of cards but the sentiment is one of vulnerability, lack of economic progress and a more restricted economic environment than we have experienced for a few years.  However, these Scorpio nano-age decans are not as difficult as the Capricorn nano-age decans with regards to the economy and markets.

2017 Market Prediction

2017-table

Table 1

Table 1 indicates the two major influences in 2017 (columns with colored cells), but these two influences are NOT equal.  The major and most important influence is the Q-Decan column (representing quasi nano-age decans).  Red is positive for the markets, blue is negative (orange is OK and white is neutral).  This table indicates very positive circumstances for the markets until September before it turns sour.  The Pica O/F column (representing pica-age overflow) is a secondary minor fine tuning that is far less dependable but can provide some short term insights affecting month-to-month stock market sentiment within the quasi-micro-age decan in force.

For example, the Gemini pica age-overflow affecting the markets in March to April 2017 indicates negative sentiment while the more significant Aries Q-Decan indicates very positive sentiment.  Therefore the Gemini period indicates a short term and small correction to an ongoing strong market.

Missing from Table 1 is the arrival of the Aquarius quasi micro-age decan in June, which in itself subdues the market.  Therefore 2017 suggest two very different realities – the first half is a continuation of late 2016 while the end of the year shows a significant reversal – but not a recession.

Review of 2016 Market Prediction

Table 2 is extracted from Virgo (2015-16) Leading into Taurus published in December 2015.

2016-table

Table 2

In the above table, the Blip + column is the same as the Pica O/F column in table 1 for 2017.  (I am trying to simplify these tables)

Table 2 divides the year between neutral Taurus until June 2016 then strong positive market sentiment for the rest of the year.  The associated Dow Jones graph (below), aligns with the above Q-Decan column remarkably well.   The first half of the year was slightly better than sideways, and all the action happened in the second half of the year.  Furthermore, the dip in early 2016 coincided with Gemini (pica age and overflow) displayed in the last two columns of this table as a downward influence.

dj2016

The late June correction was associated with the negative Capricorn and Aquarius influences (in the Blip columns).  The November correction is associated with Scorpio while the hike past the Scorpio correction is indicative that the Leo strength overwhelms the mild negativity associated with the Libra.  There is still time for Virgo to apply a small correction in late December or January.  2016 confirms that the Q-Decan column is the most important indicator.

Conclusion

2017 appears to be a continuation of the last half of 2016 for the first three quarters of 2017 than a visible pullback but not an economic collapse.

References

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/2016/dec/20/cash-in-hand-how-big-is-australias-black-economy?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=204927&subid=17386767&CMP=ema_632

[2] http://www.businessinsider.com.au/sweden-only-place-nirp-is-working-2016-4

[3] Crude Oil Prices – 70 Year Historical Chart

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